Nickel futures were trading higher during evening trade in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and speculators extended their positions in the industrial metal on surge in physical demand as the US dollar gave up gains.
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World ending stocks of cotton are forecast to decrease by 7 % to 17.8 million tons at the end of 2016-17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China, where much of the excess stocks are held, dipped 13 % to 11.3 million tons as the government sold over 2 million tons from its reserves from May through September 2016. From 2009-10 to 2014-15, world ending stocks increased by 140 per cent and reached a world record of 22.2 million tons. In 2015-16, the drop in world production led to a 14 % reduction in stocks to 19.1 million tons.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government restricted import quota to the volume required by its WTO commitments in 2015 and 2016. The government has also announced that it will continue to sell from its reserves next year, beginning March 2017 when the majority of the new crop will have been sold.
As a result of the government selling from its reserves, cotton stocks in China are expected to decline by 15% to 9.6 million tons by the end of 2016-17. However, stocks outside of China may rise by 4 % to 8.2 million tons, after falling by 16 % to 7.9 million tons, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) said in a release.
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Crude oil futures were trading lower during afternoon trade in the domestic market on Wednesday as investors and speculators remained on the sidelines in the energy commodity after data overnight showed a build-up in the US crude inventory, inspite of efforts by the OPEC and other producers to cut supply glut. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that the US crude stockpiles had surged 14.2 million barrels last week.
However, if the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data due today confirms the stockpile surge, it will be the largest build since October. At the MCX, crude oil futures for February 2017 contract is trading at Rs 3487 per barrel, down by 0.37 per cent, after opening at Rs 3488, against a previous close of Rs 3500. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 3476.
Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.31% at 578.5 on increasing demand and on rising concerns about production. Malaysia palm oil exports during Jan 1-31 rose 8.13% compared to a month earlier on strong demand from Indian & Subcontinent and Middle East, data showed. Malaysia palm oil exports climbed to 1.17 million tons during Jan 1-31 compared to 1.08 million tons for the same period a month ago, DowJones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor. India's palm oil imports from Malaysia during Jan 1-31 rose by 3.77% to 222,100 tons as compared to 214,025 tons imported during Dec 1-31.
Indonesia Palm and kernel production fell 3% to 34.5 million tons in 2016 from a year earlier, Indonesian Palm Oil Association GAPKI, says in a statement. CPO output dropped by 3% to 31.5 million tons in 2016 on yearly basis, Gapki said. China’s imports plunged 24 percent to 4.48 million metric tons in 2016, the lowest since 2005, as benchmark futures surged 25 percent after El Nino squeezed supplies in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.61% to settled at 3610 while prices up 1.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 577 and below same could see a test of 575.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 579.9, a move above could see prices testing 581.2.
Indian sugar futures rose on Monday to their highest level this year, driven by tight supply and high demand.
The March sugar contract rose as much as 1.2% to 3,946 Indian rupees ($58.72) on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX). The contract had risen nearly 200 rupees in the last 30 days, up to Friday's close. The March sugar futures was up 0.3 % to 3,190 rupees in heavy trading as of 1210 GMT.
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Rise in sugar prices on the futures and spot markets triggered a rally in sugar stocks.Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd rose as much as 10.7 percent to 214.80 rupees, its highest in over 10-1/2 years, while Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd closed 12.9 percent higher at 17.10 rupees.
पिछले साल 2500 रुपये के पास तक जाने के बाद के बाद गेहूं में गिरावट बढ़ गई है और वायदा में इसका दाम आज करीब 1 फीसदी लुढ़क गया है। पिछले 2 महीने में इसकी कीमतें करीब 20 फीसदी गिर चुकी हैं। दरअसल दरअसल इस साल देश में गेहूं की रिकॉर्ड बुआई हुई है। कृषि मंत्रालय के मुताबिक गेहूं बुआई का आंकड़ा 318 लाख हेक्टेयर के पार चला गया है। ऐसे में गेहूं की बुआई बढ़ने का अनुमान है। सरकार ने इस साल 9 करोड़ 60 लाख टन गेहूं पैदावार का लक्ष्य रखा है। हालांकि इस साल देश में गेहूं की स्टॉक बेहद कम है और नया गेहूं अप्रैल तक ही बाजार में आ सकेगा। ऐसे में मार्च तक करीब 45 लाख टन गेहूं इंपोर्ट का अनुमान है। ऐसे में जानकार मान रहे हैं कि गेहूं की कीमतों में गिरावट ज्यादा नहीं आएगी और आने वाले दिनों में थोड़ी मंदी के बाद फिर से इसमें तेजी देखने को मिल सकती है।
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इस बीच चीनी में एकतरफा तेजी जारी है। भारतीय चीनी मिल संघ की लाख दावे के बावजूद चीनी मिलें दाम बढ़ाती जा रही हैं। मुंबई में भी चीनी का दाम 4000 रुपये के पार चला गया है। पिछले हफ्ते चीनी की कीमतों में करीब 200 रुपये की तेजी आ चुकी है। वायदा में आज चीनी का दाम करीब 30 रुपये बढ़ गया है।
इस बीच डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया पिछले 3 महीने के ऊपरी स्तर पर चला गया है। डॉलर में गिरावट से रुपये को सपोर्ट मिला है। सोने और चांदी में तेजी आई है, घरेलू बाजार में सोने का दाम करीब 100 रुपये और चांदी 250 रुपये बढ़ गए हैं। दरअसल ग्लोबल मार्केट में तेजी का रुख है। वहीं अमेरिका और ईरान में तनाव बढ़ने से कच्चे तेल की कीमतों को सपोर्ट मिला है। अमेरिका में ऑयल रिग बढ़ने के बावजूद ब्रेंट 57 डॉलर और नायमैक्स क्रूड 54 डॉलर के स्तर पर चले गए हैं। उधर बेस मेटल में आज तेजी का रुख है। कॉपर समेत सभी मेटल बढ़त पर कारोबार कर रहे हैं। निकेल में तेजी ज्यादा है।
कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स (फरवरी वायदा): खरीदें-3615, स्टॉपलॉस-3576, लक्ष्य-3690.
चांदी एमसीएक्स (मार्च वायदा): खरीदें-41900, स्टॉपलॉस-41650, लक्ष्य-42350.
