Ripples Advisory News Update's

सोने की तेजी पर ब्रेक लग गया है। दरअसल डॉलर 5 हफ्ते के निचले स्तर से संभलने लगा है। ऐसे में सोना बेहद छोटे दायरे में है। वहीं चांदी में भी सुस्ती देखी जा रही है। उधर कल की गिरावट के बाद आज कच्चे तेल में रिकवरी आई है। हालांकि कारोबार बेहद सुस्त है। इस बीच मेटल की शुरुआती बढ़त खत्म हो गई है। एल्युमीनियम दबाव में आ गया है। कॉपर भी कमजोर हो गया है। हालांकि लंदन मेटल एक्सचें पर कॉपर में पिछले 5 हफ़्ते की सबसे बड़ी बढ़त दिखी है, इसके साथ ही इस हफ्ते जिंक में 5 फीसदी की तेजी आ चुकी है।

एमसीएक्स पर कच्चा तेल 0.3 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 3205 रुपये के आसपास आ गया है जबकि नैचुरल गैस 1 फीसदी से ज्यादा टूटकर 190 रुपये के आसपास नजर आ रहा। घरेलू बाजार में चांदी 0.3 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 40740 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रही है जबकि सोना 0.2 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 28470 रुपये के करीब कारोबार कर रहा है।

एग्री कमोडिटीज की बात करें तो सोयाबीन और सरसों ये दो कमोडिटी आज रडार पर हैं। दोनो में दबाव है। सोयाबीन घरेलू बाजार में जहां इस महीने के दौरान करीब 5 फीसदी टूट चुका है। वहीं ग्लोबल मार्केट में इस हफ्ते करीब 4 फीसदी की गिरावट दर्ज हुई है। दरअसल ब्राजील में इस साल सोयाबीन की रिकॉर्ड पैदावार है। ऐसे में पूरी दुनिया में सोयाबीन की कीमतों पर दबाव बना हुआ है। दूसरी ओर सरसों हैं। इसकी नई फसल की आवक मंडियों में शुरू हो चुकी है और भाव एमएसपी से करीब 200 से 300 रुपये नीचे हैं। जयपुर, कोटा, भरतपुर और अलवर की मंडियों में सोयाबीन 3300 से 3400 रुपये क्विंटल बिक रहा है।

एनसीडीईएक्स पर हल्दी का अप्रैल वायदा 0.09 फीसदी की हल्की बढ़त के साथ 6538 रुपये के स्तर पर नजर आ रहा है वहीं सोयाबीन का अप्रैल वायदा सपाट चाल के साथ 2890 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रहा है जबकि सोया तेल का अप्रैल वायदा 0.3 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 640 रुपये के करीब नजर आ रहा है। एमसीएक्स पर मेंथा तेल का मार्च वायदा 0.05 फीसदी की मामूली बढ़त के साथ 1005 रुपये के आसपास दिख रहा है वही क्रूड पाम ऑयल का अप्रैल वायदा 0.1 फीसदी बढ़त के साथ 520 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रहा है।

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अमेरिका में कच्चे तेल के भंडार में कमी आई है जिसके चलते कच्चे तेल के दाम बढ़े हुए नजर आ रहे हैं। फिलहाल ब्रेंट क्रूड 51 डॉलर के ऊपर कारोबार कर रहा है। वहीं डॉलर में कमजोरी के चलते सोने में स्थिरता बनी हुई है।

निवेश की सलाह

सोना एमसीएक्स: खरीदें - 28350, स्टॉपलॉस - 28200, लक्ष्य - 28600

कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स: खरीदें - 3220, स्टॉपलॉस - 3300, लक्ष्य - 3100

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Aluminium futures were little changed during morning trade in the domestic market on Thursday as participants build up fresh bets in the industrial metal amid rise in physical demand for aluminium at the domestic spot market. Further, an increase in physical demand for aluminium at the domestic spot market was led by widening of positions by traders in the spot market, supported aluminium prices at future trade.

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.32% at 27985 just ahead of FED announcement while Comex Gold rallied to see gain's by 1.6 percent to settled at $1,217.81 an ounce after rising to $1,219.36, the highest since March 7. It was on track for its biggest one-day jump since September as support seen after the Federal Reserve announced an increase to its key short-term interest rate on Wednesday, but the metal’s price reaction isn’t quite the head scratcher that it seems to be.

Trading Ideas:

*Gold trading range for the day is 27835-28129.

*Gold prices rose as the dollar fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve stuck to a less hawkish stance on further interest rate hikes this year.

Crude oil

Crude oil on MCX settled up 1.34% at 3178 rallied in yesterday session snapping a 7-session losing streak as government data confirmed a surprising drop in U.S. oil inventories. Prices surged on Wednesday after a slew of market reports and official data offered some hope that a near three-year global glut in oil is coming to an end, albeit more slowly than many anticipated. Crude oil prices bounced off their lowest levels since the OPEC agreed at the end of last year to cut crude production, with an an initial surge evaporating as stockpiles remained high.

Trading Ideas:

*Crude oil trading range for the day is 3119-3241.

*Crude oil gained after industry data showed a surprise draw down in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Natural gas

Natural Gas on MCX settled up 0.72% at 195.40 pushed higher bouncing back from heavy losses in the prior session as forecasts showing cooler weather on the way boosted the heating fuel. Snow showers and gusty winds remain in the wake of Tuesday’s powerful winter storm that brought a wintry mess to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, according to forecasters.

Trading Ideas:

*Natural Gas trading range for the day is 188.9-200.5.

*Natural Gas recovered to close at 195.40 as forecasts showing cooler weather on the way boosted the heating fuel.

*Temperatures are expected to remain much colder than normal through the end of the week.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.34% at 386.8 bolstered by a weaker dollar and continuing supply problems, including stoppages at the world's two biggest mines. Prices last week fell to their lowest level since Jan. 10 at $5,652 a tonne. The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in three months, a move spurred by steady economic growth, strong job gains and confidence that inflation is rising to the central bank's target.

Trading Ideas:

*Copper trading range for the day is 380.6-392.

*Copper gained bolstered by a weaker dollar and continuing supply issues including stoppages at the world's two biggest mines of the metal.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.89% at 183.7 as Chinese buying had been supporting the market. China’s inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin decreased. This may give some confidence to investors. China's economy is set to log steady growth and there is no scope for hard landing, Premier Li Keqiang said. Nonetheless, the economy faces significant external risks, he told reporters after the conclusion of the annual national legislative session. China targets about 6.5 percent economic growth this year, which is slower than the 6.7 percent expansion achieved in 2016.

Trading Ideas:

*Zinc trading range for the day is 177.7-187.1.

*Zinc prices ended with gains as Chinese buying had been supporting the market.

*China's central bank raised short-term interest rates for the third time in as many months.

*Zinc daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 572 tonnes.

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Silver on MCX settled down -0.09% at 40045 traded in the range as investors prepared for a rate hike by the Fed while awaiting what Chair Janet Yellen says about the future path of interest rates. While Comex Silver rose 2.3 percent at $17.22 an ounce as the Fed raised interest rates but kept its rate hike outlook on hold through 2019. Overnight, the market noted the widely expected fed rate hike of 0.25% on Wednesday by the FOMC, which marked the highest Fed Funds rate since October 2008, with up to three increases seen this year.

Trading Ideas:

*Silver trading range for the day is 39682-40298.

*Silver prices gained shrugging off a Fed rate hike and language that suggested at least two more ahead this year.

*The Labor Department said consumer prices rose 0.2% in February, while the Commerce Department said retail sales climbed 0.1%.

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Crude oil prices rose on Thursday in early Asian trading, extending gains from the previous session after official data showed U.S. stockpiles had eased from record highs.

Prices surged on Wednesday after a slew of market reports and official data offered some hope that a near three-year global glut in oil is coming to an end, albeit more slowly than many anticipated.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 28 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $49.14 a barrel by 0010 GMT, having surged 2.4 percent in the previous session to settle at $48.86, its first increase in eight days.

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Gold prices rose to a one-week high on Thursday as the dollar fell after the U.S. Federal Reserve stuck to a less hawkish stance on further interest rate hikes this year.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,222.20 per ounce, the highest since March 7, at 0028 GMT.

* U.S. gold futures climbed 1.72 percent to $1,221.3.

* Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.53 percent to 839.43 tonnes on Wednesday from 834.99 tonnes on Tuesday.

* The dollar wallowed at a one-month low early on Thursday after the Fed sounded less hawkish, while the euro stood tall as Dutch election exit polls gave the country's prime minister a big lead over his far-right rival.

* The dollar index against a basket of major currencies extended losses from the previous day, when it slid more than 1 percent, to touch 100.490 , its lowest since Feb. 17.

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Oil prices rebounded from three-month lows on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise draw down in U.S. crude stockpiles and as Goldman Sachs put a positive spin on OPEC's compliance with output cuts. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading up 83 cents, or 1.7 percent, at $48.42 a barrel by 0536 GMT. That came after the contract fell for a seventh session on Tuesday in its longest losing streak since January 2016.

Brent futures were up 76 cents, or 1.5 percent, at $51.68, after settling down 43 cents at $50.92 on Tuesday, their lowest finish since November. U.S. crude stocks fell by 531,000 barrels last week, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday after settlement. That compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 3.7 million barrels. If the draw is confirmed by government data on Wednesday, it would be the first draw down after nine consecutive builds.

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चीनी मिलों के संगठन इस्मा की ओर से जारी होने वाले आंकड़े पर खाद्य मंत्री राम विलास पासवान ने सवाल उठाए हैं। पासवान ने कहा है कि बार-बार चीनी उत्पादन के आंकड़े बदलने से ग्राहक और किसान दोनों को नुकसान होता है। खाद्य मंत्री ने कहा है कि इस्मा के उत्पादन आकड़े भ्रामक हैं। हर पंद्रह दिन पर उत्पादन आंकड़ों में कटौती से इस्मा की विश्वसनीयता पर सवाल खड़े हो रहे हैं और इसी वजह से सरकार इन आंकड़ों के दम पर इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी में किसी तरह की कटौती से इनकार किया है।

बता दें कि इस्मा ने चीनी उत्पादन अनुमान को घटाकर करीब 203 लाख टन कर दिया है। इससे पहले इस्मा ने 25 जनवरी को जारी रिपोर्ट में चालू चीनी सत्र के लिए 213 लाख टन चीनी उत्पादन होने का अनुमान जताया था। संगठन ने 25 जनवरी को चीन उत्पादन के अनुमान में कटौती की थी और 2 महीने से भी कम समय में यह दूसरी कटौती थी। संगठन ने सितंबर 2016 में भी चीनी उत्पादन अनुमान 234 लाख टन होने का अनुमान जताया था। इस तरह अभी तक कुल मिला कर 6 महीनो में 3 बार चीनी उत्पादन को लेकर अनुमान में चीनी उत्पादन कम रहने के संकेत इस्मा दे चुका है।

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Gold prices edged up on Wednesday on uncertainty over the outcome of the Dutch elections, while markets awaited clues on the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes this year. With an immediate rate increase by the Fed seen as a done deal, investors are focusing on what message the central bank will deliver when it concludes its meeting later on Wednesday. In December the Fed forecast three rate rises this year.

Spot gold edged up 0.3 percent to $1,201.64 per ounce by 0313 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,201 per ounce. We do not think much will change throughout much of Wednesday ahead of the Fed rate decision and policy statement.

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3 महीनों के निचले स्तर छूने के बाद एशियन बाजार में कच्चे तेल के दाम में करीब 2 फीसदी की रिकवरी हुई है। फिलहाल ब्रेंट क्रूड 51 डॉलर के ऊपर कारोबार कर रहा है। वहीं फेड रेट में बढ़ोतरी के अनुमान के चलते सोने में सपाट कारोबार रहा।

निवेश की सलाह

निकेल एमसीएक्स (मार्च वायदा): खरीदें - 670, स्टॉपलॉस - 3090, लक्ष्य - 3200

कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स (मार्च वायदा): खरीदें - 3130, स्टॉपलॉस - 3340, लक्ष्य - 3500

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Gold

Gold on MCX settled down -0.41% at 28251 as the prospect of imminent interest rate rises kept them near the five-week lows touched last week. Fed policymakers on Tuesday gather for a two-day meeting that is expected to end with the central bank raising interest rates for the second time in three months. Investors are also focusing on Wednesday's Dutch elections.

Trading Ideas:

*Gold trading range for the day is 28084-28504.

*Gold prices were little changed as the prospect of imminent interest rate rises kept them near the five-week lows touched last week.

Silver

Silver on MCX settled down -0.27% at 40418 as the possibility of a U.S. rate hike later this week weighed on prices. Fed policymakers on Tuesday gather for a two-day meeting that is expected to end with the central bank raising interest rates for the second time in three months. Investors are also focusing on Wednesday's Dutch elections.

Trading Ideas:

*Silver trading range for the day is 40166-40806.

*Silver prices ended with losses as the possibility of a U.S. rate hike later this week weighed on prices.

Crude oil

Crude oil on MCX settled down -0.81% at 3203 continued to fall in yesterday session after the government raised its shale oil output estimates for April. US shale oil production from seven main regions is forecast to rise by 109,000 barrels a day to 4.962 million barrels a day in April from March, according to a monthly report from the EIA.

Trading Ideas:

*Crude oil trading range for the day is 3167-3241.

*Crude oil continued its recent slide as traders continue to unwind bullish long positions amid doubts about OPEC’s productions cuts.

Natural gas

Natural gas on MCX settled up 1.05% at 202 as support seen after the cold weather forecasts pointed to increased demand before the end of winter. The jump has been attributed to more usage than expected and revised weather predictions.

Trading Ideas:

*Natural gas trading range for the day is 199.4-204.8.

*Natural gas gained to settle at 202 as support seen from cold weather forecasts pointed to increased demand before the end of winter.

Copper

Copper on MCX settled up 0.69% at 385.45 as support seen after trader cover their short position as supply disruptions seen after workers at Peru's top copper miner downed tools indefinitely late last week. Workers at Freeport-McMoRan's Cerro Verde in Peru started an indefinite strike on Friday that halted output of about 40,000 tonnes per month.

Trading Ideas:

*Copper trading range for the day is 383.4-388.2.

*Copper prices gained buoyed mostly by supply disruptions after workers at Peru's top copper miner downed tools indefinitely late last week.

Zinc

Zinc on MCX settled up 0.67% at 181.20 as support seen after LME Zinc prices jumped 1.6 percent to $2,757 a tonne, its highest level in a week after weaker dollar and stronger global risk appetite despite the likelihood the Fed will raise rates on March 15. In the physical market, premiums continued to strengthen last week in the USA due to the strike at Noranda Income Fund’s zinc processing facility in Canada, which is tightening available supply.

Trading Ideas:

*Zinc trading range for the day is 179.1-184.3.

*Zinc gained as support seen after LME Zinc prices jumped 1.6 percent to $2,757 a tonne, its highest level in a week after weaker dollar and stronger global risk appetite

Nickel

Nickel on MCX settled up 2.26% at 675.40 on short covering as support seen from LME nickel which climbed 1.7% to $10,055 a tonne after sliding 10% last week. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte could reappoint the environment minister who ordered more than half the country's mines to shut down, as Congress appears set to defer a decision on her confirmation after concluding hearings last week. Congress' Commission on Appointments will meet on Tuesday to discuss issues surrounding the appointment of Environment Secretary Regina Lopez.

Trading Ideas:

*Nickel trading range for the day is 658.5-688.3.

*Nickel prices rallied on short covering as support seen from LME nickel which climbed 1.7 percent to $10,055 a tonne after sliding 10 percent last week.

Aluminium

Aluminium on MCX settled down -0.56% at 123.9 and is the only counter in base metals prices dropped as the markets geared up for an expected increase to U.S. interest rates this month. The United States has launched a trade case accusing Chinese aluminium foil producers of dumping product and damaging its domestic industry, the first such case since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trading Ideas:

*Aluminium trading range for the day is 122.5-126.7.

*Aluminium dropped and is the only counter in base metals prices dropped as the markets geared up for an expected increase to U.S. interest rates this month.

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Jeera on NCDEX settled down -1.22% at 17010 on heavy arrivals from the producing belts. Though, some losses were capped on expectation of rising exports demand at the spot market. The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags (each of 55 kg) as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags, thereby reducing the availability even as the demand for exports and domestic consumption remains firm, trader sources said.

Turkey and Syria, India’s key competitors in the international market, are less likely to add supplies as the production in these countries is believed to hover at around 12,000 tonnes and 20,000 tonnes, respectively. This is seen as a major boost for Indian jeera exports, which are likely to hover around 1 lakh tonnes, up marginally from the previous year.

Trading Ideas:

*Jeera trading range for the day is 16695-17525.

*Jeera prices ended with losses on heavy arrivals from the producing belts.

*The carryover stock has dipped to about 2 lakh bags (each of 55 kg) as against the normal 20-25 lakh bags.

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Aluminium futures were little changed during morning trade in the domestic market on Friday as participants remained on the sidelines in the industrial metal amid muted physical demand for aluminium at the domestic spot market. Further, a drop in physical demand for aluminium at the domestic spot market was due to trimming of bets by traders in the spot market, influenced aluminium prices at future trade. 

At the MCX, aluminium futures for March 2017 contract is trading at Rs 124.60 per kg, down by 0.08 per cent, after opening at Rs 124.95, against a previous close of Rs 124.70. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 123.90.

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Gold prices dropped below the key level of $1,200 an ounce on Friday to hit their lowest in over five weeks, pressured by a stronger dollar ahead of U.S. jobs data later in the day. 

FUNDAMENTALS 

* Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,197.90 per ounce at 0118 GMT, after touching its weakest since Jan. 31 at $1,197.02 earlier in the session. The metal was set for a weekly loss of about 2.8 percent. 

* U.S. gold futures fell 0.4 percent to $1,198.10 an ounce. 

* The dollar index was up 0.1 percent at 101.94.

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पिछले कारोबार में 5 फीसदी गिरने के बाद कल भी कच्चे तेल में 2 फीसदी और गिरावट आई है। हालांकि, अब निचले स्तरों से कच्चे तेल में खरीदारी देखने को मिल रही है। फिलहाल ब्रेंट क्रूड करीब 1 फीसदी उछलकर 52.5 डॉलर के ऊपर कारोबार कर रहा है। इसके अलावा नायमैक्स पर डब्ल्यूटीआई क्रूड 1 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 49.75 डॉलर पर कारोबार कर रहा है।

वहीं, सोना भी 5 हफ्तों के निचले स्तर पर पहुंच गया है और डॉलर में भी कमजोरी नजर आई है। फिलहाल कॉमैक्स पर सोना करीब 0.5 फीसदी की गिरावट के साथ 1,200 डॉलर के नीचे कारोबार कर रहा है। कॉमैक्स पर चांदी 0.5 फीसदी टूटकर 16.9 डॉलर पर कारोबार कर रही है।

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Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.3% at 6624 as the supplies are adequate in the physical market. Though, some losses were capped on rising domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. On the export front, country exported about 82,115 tons during April-December period, up by 28% compared to last year exports of 64,105 tons. The turmeric arrivals in the country increase to 54,641 tons during February 27- March 4 compared to 28,454 tons during previous week.

Trading Ideas:

*Turmeric trading range for the day is 6486-6738.

*Turmeric prices ended with losses as the supplies are adequate in the physical market.

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