Jeera Jun futures recover on Tuesday on short covering and weak trend in physical market. However, arrivals have been lower during first 7 days of May compared to April. As per Agmarknet data, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016/17 as per the data release by Dept of commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3 rd advance estimates for 2016/17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lt, down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lt.

NCDEX Turmeric prices jumped about 3.83% on Tuesday after plunge more than 11% last week. The recovery is due to lower level buying and on expectation that the prices have touched its floor for the season. During the current season, there was lower demand from industrial buyers and higher stocks available in the country. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tonnes compared to 20,703 tonnes during April (1-7), as per the Agmarknet data. 

The lower arrivals are due to poor realization by the farmers. On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes, as per government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are lower.

Outlook

We expect Jeera futures to trade sideways to higher on anticipation of firm spot prices and higher exports in coming months. However, the prices may pressurize due to want of further exports enquiries.

Turmeric to trade higher on expectation of some good physical demand as prices has touched lowest for the contract. There is sufficient stocks and lower demand from the industry. The supplies have been lower due to lower prices and there is some increase in demand which may keep the prices supported.

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