Free Trial...
Hello Traders!!! Grab This Offer As Soon As Possible
Ripples Advisory provides 2 Days free Trial In All Segments Equity, Commodity And Forex. Just Go To Link And Just Register Yourself here. Read More WWW.ripplesadvisory.com
रबी की बुआई शुरु हो गई है और पिछले एक साल से जारी दाल और गेहूं की कीमतों में गिरावट अभी भी जारी है। चना को छोड़कर सभी दालें एमएसपी से काफी नीचे हं। सरकार किसानों की आय बढ़ाना चाहती है, लेकिन दाल और गेहूं जमीन छोड़ने को तैयार नहीं। नतीजा ये है कि किसानों की आय में भारी कमी आई है। ऐसे में सरकार ने मटर पर भी अचानक 50 फीसदी की इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी लगा दी है। वहीं गेहूं के इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी को बढ़ाकर दोगुना कर दिया गया है। लेकिन सबसे बड़ा सवाल ये है कि बंपर पैदावार के बाद से नोटबंदी की मार झेल रहा दाल बाजार सरकार के इन कदमों से कितना उबरेगा। सवाल गेहूं को लेकर भी है। विदेश में जब सस्ता है भाव तो फिर घरेलू बाजार में कैसे बढ़ेगा गेहूं का दाम।
चने का भाव 5,000 के नीचे आया है जबकि अरहर 4,000 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल का भाव चल रहा है। वहीं इंदौर में उड़द की दाल की कीमत 3000 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल और मूंग का भाव 4,000 रुपये प्रति क्विंटल है।
सरकार किसानों की आय बढ़ाना चाहती है, इसलिए सरकार ने मटर पर 50 फीसदी इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी लगाने का फैसला किया है। वहीं अरहर, मूंग और उड़द का इंपोर्ट बंद कर दिया है जबकि गेहूं पर इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी दोगुनी कर 20 फीसदी इंपोर्ट ड्यूटी लगाई गई है।
दरअसल, दाल में मंदी की वजह की बात करें तो पिछले साल 220 लाख टन की बंपर पैदावार हुई थी जबकि इस साल 229 लाख टन पैदावार का लक्ष्य था। लेकिन मंडियों में दाल की ओवर सप्लाई होने के कारण ग्लोबल मार्केट में दाल भारत से भी सस्ते कीमतों में मिल रही है।
इधर विदेशी बाजार में गेहूं भारत से सस्ते कीमतों पर मिल रहा है। वित्त वर्ष 2017 में करीब 57 लाख टन गेहूं इंपोर्ट किया गया। इस साल करीब 22 लाख टन इंपोर्ट का अनुमान है। इस साल 9.84 करोड़ टन गेहूं की पैदावार हुई है। इस बार 9.75 करोड़ टन गेहूं पैदावार का लक्ष्य है।
Demand for physical gold in Asia remained tepid this week as high prices kept buyers on the sidelines despite the start of the wedding season in India. Gold is considered an essential part of weddings in India, the world's second-biggest consumer of the metal after China, and it is a popular gift for special occasions. Retail buyers are waiting for a correction. Jewellers need to replenish inventory but, they want to do it at lower levels.
Get Trading Tips >> Indian Stock Market Tips.
Coriander futures edged lower on NCDEX as participants cut down their positions amid subdued domestic as well as export demand in the spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position on increased supplies from major producing regions also influenced coriander futures. The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 4905.00, down by 0.89% or Rs 44.00 from its previous closing of Rs 4949.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 6160 lots.
The contract for December delivery was trading at Rs 5010.00, down by 0.67% or Rs 34.00 from its previous closing of Rs 5044.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 35830 lots on NCDEX.
Cardamom futures were trading higher during the morning trade in the domestic market on Friday as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agri-commodity amid rise in physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, insufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions, supported the upward trend in the domestic cardamom prices.
At the MCX, cardamom futures for December 2017 contract was trading at Rs 980 per kg, up by 0.80 per cent, after opening at Rs 970, against a previous close of Rs 972.20. It touched the intra-day high of Rs 993.
Chana Dec futures traded on positive note on Thursday but still continue to trade in a tight range pressured by good start to rabi sowing and higher stock levels in the country. However, support in chana prices is seen due to hike in 50 percent import tax on all pea by the government.
Outlook
Chana futures may trade sideways to down on sufficient stocks and good start to rabi sowing in the country. Hike in import duty in all peas may support prices.
MCX Cotton Nov futures closed higher tracking good surge in kapas contract in NCDEX. However, prices of cotton is trading steady as arrivals have increase in the country. Moreover, cotton exports from country may be affected due to hike in procurement prices in largest producing state of Gujarat. In November, cotton traded sideways in a range on higher than expected cotton production in the country.
CCI has stared its procurement from Telangana and some parts of Gujarat and estimated to have procured about 62,000 bales at MSP this season. The arrivals in the current season during Oct are about 20.27 lakh bales compared to 18.72 lakh bales last year as per ICC.
Outlook
Cotton futures are expected trade sideways to higher as CCI has already start its procurement in main cotton growing states. Procurement by government will support prices as it increase the demand from the stockists, mills and physical traders They have a target to procure 100 lakh bales this season. Good demand for kapas may also support cotton prices.
CPO trading range for the day is 558.2-580. Crude palm oil dropped as pressure seen after the government did not take any decision on increasing import duty on edible oil for now. For the second first half of Nov, the base import price for crude palm oil and refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil were raised by $2 and $3 per tn.
During Nov-Sep period, crude palm oil import is 57.34 lakh tonnes, up 9.5% from 52.34 lt during the same period of the previous oil year. Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 2.90 rupees and settled at 554.20 rupees.
SELL CPO NOV 2017 @ 569.00 SL 574.00 TGT 564.00-560.00.MCX.
Ref.Soya Oil trading range for the day is 708-726. Ref soyoil ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand after prices gained on concerns over supply. Moreover, hike in the tariff value for soy oil by $15 per ton to $839 for the first half of Nov also support prices.
India’s edible oil imports are likely to rise to 15.90 million tonnes in the 12 months through October 2018, up from an estimated 15.14 million tonnes shipped. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 692.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.
SELL REF SOYA DEC 2017 @ 718.00 SL 722.00 TGT 714.00-709.00.NCDEX.
Rmseed trading range for the day is 3931-4063. Mustard seed prices dropped due to profit booking after prices gained on improved demand in the physical market for winter demand. As per rabi sowing report from the government, the area under mustard is little lower than last year’s acreage at 26.57 lakh ha.
NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 193 tonnes to 1373 tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.9 Rupees to end at 3986.4 Rupees per 100 kg.
SELL RMSEED DEC 2017 @ 3995 SL 4020 TGT 3970-3940.NCDEX.
Soyabean trading range for the day is 2828-2952. Soyabean dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported tracking global cues amid strong China demand and concerns over supply. Prices were also supported by hope of higher demand for meal in coming month following increased demand in October month.
NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 2494 tonnes to 84248 tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -11 Rupees to 2809 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Oil prices rose on Thursday amid geopolitical concern about anti-corruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia. The West Texas Intermediate for December delivery was up $0.36 to settle at $57.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for January delivery rose $0.44 to close at $63.93 a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.
With an expectation that more copper mines would come up for auctions, India's import dependence for the metal is expected to come down. He also said Hindustan Copper Ltd's (HCL) expansion programme would help the country to increase its domestic production for metal. India imports more 90 per cent of its copper requirement now.
HCL's expansion programme would increase the domestic production. Besides, we have been auctioning mines and the country is progressing towards focused exploration of minerals. It is hoped more copper mines would come up for auctions. With all these, we hope country's import dependence for copper would come down.
The state-run company is presently implementing mine expansion scheme to quadruple its production capacity from 3.4 million tonnes to 12.4 million tonnes per annum within the next 5 years at an estimated capital expenditure of around $700 million.
Crude oil futures bounced back and ended higher on Thursday despite a report tempering expectation for further supply cuts from OPEC. Traders got some support with the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia’s plan to slash crude exports too lifted sentiment. It was reported that Saudi Arabia plans to cut its crude exports by 120,000 barrels per day in December compared with November, slashing allocations to all regions. In recent days oil has jumped to the highest in two years on speculation the global oil market will re-balance in the near future.
Benchmark crude oil futures for December delivery ended higher by $0.36 at $ 57.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for January delivery was up by $0.47 to $63.96 a barrel on the ICE.
Gold inched up early Friday, holding near a three-week high amid uncertainty over U.S. tax reforms, and was on track for its first weekly rise in a month.
Fundamentals
* Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,286.30 per ounce at 0101 GMT. On Thursday, it touched its highest since Oct. 20 at $1,288.34 an ounce. The safe haven asset was up about 1.3 percent for the week so far.
* U.S. gold futures for December delivery were flat at $1,287.20.
* Palladium gained 0.2 percent to $1,011.97 an ounce. It touched its highest since 2001 at $1,026.10 on Thursday.
* The dollar was on track for weekly losses after dropping on disappointment with a tax bill put forth by U.S. Senate Republicans that would delay expected corporate tax cuts.
* Asian shares slipped on Friday with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 0.1 percent.
* Gold demand slid to its lowest in eight years in the last quarter as jewellery buying fell and inflows into bullion-backed exchange traded funds dried up, data from the World Gold Council showed on Thursday.
Crude Palm Oil
CPO trading range for the day is 550.1-583.3. Crude palm oil gains on higher tariff value and expectation of further hike in import duty for edible oil. According to SEA release, during Nov-Sep period, crude palm oil import is 57.34 lakh tonnes, up 9.5% from 52.34 lt during the same period of the previous oil year.
Malaysia's palm oil output is expected to have risen to a two-year peak in October, lifting inventories to their highest since January 2016. Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 7.30 rupees and settled at 551.30 rupees.
BUY CPO NOV 2017 @ 565.00 SL 560.00 TGT 572.00-580.00.MCX
Soyabean
Soyabean trading range for the day is 2831-2939. Soyabean prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand amid rise in overseas prices on concerns over supply in US and Brazil. USDA may trim its output forecast to 4.4 million bushel compared to 4.43 million bushels expected earlier.
NCDEX accredited warehouses soyabean stocks gained by 3887 tonnes to 81754 tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 52 Rupees to 2820 Rupees per 100 kgs.
BUY SOYABEAN DEC @ 2865 SL BELOW 2830 TGT 2895-2920. NCDEX (BTST)
Rmseed
Rmseed trading range for the day is 3944-4040. Mustard seed prices gained as physical demand increasing amid good demand from the oil mills. Gujarat 2017-18 mustard sowing till Nov 6 at 151,700 hec vs 78,500 hec a year ago
NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 192 tonnes to 1566 tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 25.75 Rupees to end at 3973.5 Rupees per 100 kg.
BUY RMSEED DEC 2017 @ 3980 SL 3950 TGT 4020-4050.NCDEX.
Ref.Soya oil
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 702-732. Ref soyoil ended with gains on hope of higher demand for soyoil following expectation that government may hike edible oil import duty. Prices were also supported by hope of higher demand for meal in coming month following increased demand in October month.
India’s edible oil imports are likely to rise to 15.90 million tonnes in the 12 months through October 2018, up from an estimated 15.14 million tonnes. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 691.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.
BUY REF SOYA DEC 2017 @ 715.00 SL 710.00 TGT 719.00-724.00.NCDEX.
Soyabean
Cardamom futures were trading higher during the morning trade in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agri-commodity amid rise in physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, insufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions, supported the upward trend in the domestic cardamom prices.
At the MCX, cardamom futures for December 2017 contract was trading at Rs 953.80 per kg, up by 1.84 per cent, after opening at Rs 944, against a previous close of Rs 936.60. It touched the intra-day high of Rs 955.80.
Mentha oil futures were trading higher during the morning trade in the domestic market on Thursday amid pick-up in demand at domestic spot market and restricted supplies from producing regions. Market analysts said fresh positions built up by traders following pick-up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market against restricted supplies from Chandausi, led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade.
At the MCX, mentha oil futures for November 2017 contract was trading at Rs 1716.30 per kg, up by 4 per cent, after opening at Rs 1699.80, against the previous closing price of Rs 1650.30. It touched the intra-day high of Rs 1716.30.
India's gold consumption is likely to drop to its lowest in eight years in 2017, hit by government moves to make bullion trading more transparent and by faltering demand from some rural areas, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Thursday. Evidence of weaker appetite in a country where gold is used in everything from investment to wedding gifts could drag on global prices that have been hovering near their highest in three weeks. India is the word's No.2 consumer of gold behind China.
Indian demand is likely to be around 650 tonnes in 2017, compared to a 10-year average of 845 tonnes, Somasundaram PR, Managing Director of WGC's India operations.
In the September quarter, the newly introduced Goods and Services Tax (GST) and anti-money laundering legislation around jewellery retail transactions deterred gold buyers.
Gold demand slid to its lowest in eight years in the last quarter as jewellery buying fell and inflows into bullion-backed exchange traded funds dried up, data from the World Gold Council showed on Thursday. Overall demand fell 9 percent to 915 tonnes, its weakest since the third quarter of 2009, the WGC said.
That pattern is likely to feed through to the full year, with the WGC forecasting annual demand of just 3,900-4,000 tonnes, compared to 4,347 tonnes in 2016. Gold demand has not been below 4,000 tonnes on an annual basis since 2009.
