Retail inflation is expected at 4.8 per cent for the current fiscal and fears in this regard are exaggerated as the country will continue to witness benign prices, says a report. According to SBI's research report Ecowrap, the Reserve Bank's inflation forecast of 4-4.5 per cent will be "materially undershot" as CPI inflation is unlikely to breach the 4 per cent mark till July this year. According to official data, inflation at the wholesale level eased to 5.7 per cent in March on declining fuel prices and appreciating rupee. 

The decline was accentuated by decline in fuel and power inflation and manufactured products. It may be noted that fuel prices were significantly cut on March 31, while the rupee has been on an appreciating trend since February 2017. These two factors have pushed down fuel and manufactured product prices.

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