Ripples Advisory News Update's

कमोडिटीज की बात करें तो इस बीच चने में गिरावट बढ़ गई है। वायदा में इसका दाम 6 हजार रुपये के नीचे आ गया है। दरअसल मंडियों में नई मूंग की आवक शुरु हो गई है और अगले महीने से नई उड़द भी बाजार में होगी। ऐसे में सभी दाल की कीमतों पर दबाव बढ़ गया है। एनसीडीईएक्स पर चने का अक्टूबर वायदा 1.3 फीसदी टूट कर 5990 रुपये के नीचे आ गया है।

उधर सोने का भाव एक साल की ऊंचाई पर है। लेकिन गोल्डमैन सैक्स को इस तेजी पर भरोसा नहीं है। गोल्डमैन सैक्स ने कहा है कि ये तेजी सिर्फ अमेरिका और उत्तर कोरिया के बीच तनाव की वजह से आई है और इस साल के अंत में सोना 1250 डॉलर के आसपास ही रह सकता है। एमसीएक्स पर सोना 0.06 फीसदी की हल्की बढ़त के साथ 30240 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रहा है। वहीं, चांदी 0.2 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 41515 रुपये के आसपास कारोबार कर रही है।

इस बीच कच्चे तेल में कल की तेजी पर आज ब्रेक लग गया है। अमेरिका में फिर से समूद्री तूफान की चेतावनी है। ऐसे में इलाके की ज्यादातर रिफाइनरी बंद हो गई हैं। इसकी क्षमता अमेरिका में कुल रिफाइनिंग का करीब 20 फीसदी है। वहीं बेस मेटल में रौनक बढ़ गई है। सभी मेटल बढ़त के साथ कारोबार कर रहे हैं। एमसीएक्स पर कच्चा तेल 0.2 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 3130 रुपये के आसपास नजर आ रहा है। वहीं कॉपर और जिंक दोनों 0.6 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ कारोबार कर रहे हैं।

रिपल्स एडवाइजरी की निवेश सलाह

सोना एमसीएक्स (अक्टूबर वायदा): खरीदें - 30200, स्टॉपलॉस - 29950 और लक्ष्य - 30600

चांदी एमसीएक्स (दिसंबर वायदा): खरीदें - 41500, स्टॉपलॉस - 41150 और लक्ष्य - 42000

कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स (सितंबर वायदा): खरीदें - 3100, स्टॉपलॉस - 3070 और लक्ष्य - 3150

कॉपर एमसीएक्स (नवंबर वायदा): खरीदें - 447, स्टॉपलॉस - 444 और लक्ष्य - 451

जिंक एमसीएक्स (सितंबर वायदा): खरीदें - 200, स्टॉपलॉस - 198.50 और लक्ष्य - 202.5

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Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, wiping out some of the gains of the previous session amid worries lower growth targets in China could cut oil demand and ongoing concern over Russia's compliance with a global deal to cut oil output. But worries over escalating violence in the Middle East put a floor under prices. Brent crude futures dropped 20 cents, or 0.4%, to $55.70 a barrel as of 0459 GMT after settling 1.5% higher in the previous session. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $53.10 a barrel after closing the previous session up 1.4%. "The main drag affecting markets today is the lowering of growth targets by China and tighter regulatory controls which implies less demand for oil and commodities in general," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market strategist at Oanda brokerage in Singapore.

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Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.37% at 3787 tracking weakness in spot demand on expectation of higher supply. With the expectation of good crop in 2016/17, the new season supplies will be at higher size in the country. In addition to that the carryover stocks from last year might be higher as country imported record mustard oil and exported multiyear low mustard meal. 

 However, the prices will get some support from the increase in minimum support price (MSP) of Rapeseed & Mustard to Rs. 3,700 per quintal for 2016/17 from Rs. 3,350 per quintal last year. Further the mustard crop is still waiting for harvest the weather will be very crucial in next one month. India's agriculture department in second advance estimated pegged mustard seed crop at 7.912 million tons as compared to 6.797 million tons a year ago. Sources projected new mustard crop between 6.5-7 million tons.

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                Trading Ideas  

Rmseed trading range for the day is 3733-3827.

Mustard seed prices ended with losses tracking weakness in spot demand on expectation of higher supply. 

With the expectation of good crop in 2016/17, the new season supplies will be at higher size in the country. 

Sources projected new mustard crop between 6.5-7 million tons. 

In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -64.4 Rupees to end at 3922 Rupees per 100 kg. 

Silver remained in range as market players looked ahead to U.S. President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday for further details on his promises of tax reform. Investors also looked ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. In addition, market players will keep an eye out on a revised reading of fourth-quarter U.S.growth data on Tuesday to gauge the strength of the economy. 

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Copper ended the session on 27 Feb 2017 at INR 395.05 per kg, up 0.27%. The prices tested a high of INR 395.80 per kg and a low of INR 390.50 per kg. Technical charts suggest that breach above INR 398 and 400 per kg will be beneficial for Copper. Indian Copper was not able to move past important resistance levels of Rs 398 on Monday. 

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 Further appreciation from here can take prices close to INR 400 per kg. On the lower side Rs 392 and 390 per kg are the support levels. Till the prices are able to breach resistances, sell on rise is advisable. Losses are expected in Copper with opening can be near Rs 393 and 394 per kg.

NCDEX Sugar futures witnessed a lax movement yesterday amid mixed cues from the physical market. The NCDEX March Sugar futures have recently recovered from a three and half week low of Rs 3780 per quintal as traders focused on reports stating an early closure of the sugarcane crushing season this year.

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The futures ended at Rs 3810 per quintal, down 0.21% on the day as spot prices managed to stay supported. Spot quotes were around Rs 3940 per quintal in Muzzafar Nagar, flat on the day. Sugar despatched by sugar mills across the country from 1st October 2016 to 31st January 2017, as reported by the sugar mills, is lower by 7.5 lac tons as compared to the sugar despatched in the first 4 months of the previous sugar season 2015-16 SS. The trend of lower sales noticed from October 2016, has continued even in January 2017.

भारतीय बास्केट के कच्चे तेल की अंतर्राष्ट्रीय कीमत शुक्रवार को 55.18 डॉलर प्रति बैरल दर्ज की गई। यह गुरुवार को दर्ज कीमत 55.48 डॉलर प्रति बैरल से कम है। पेट्रोलियम एवं प्राकृतिक गैस मंत्रालय के अधीनस्थ पेट्रोलियम नियोजन एवं विश्लेषण प्रकोष्ठ (पीपीएसी) ने सोमवार को यह जानकारी दी। 

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रुपये के संदर्भ में भारतीय बास्केट के कच्चे तेल की कीमत शुक्रवार को घटकर 3687.76 रुपये प्रति बैरल हो गई, जबकि गुरुवार को यह 3707.99 रुपये प्रति बैरल थी। रुपया शुक्रवार को 66.84 रुपये प्रति डॉलर के स्तर पर बंद हुआ।

ओपेक की क्रूड उत्पादन कटौती डील के चलते कच्चे तेल में कटौती कायम है जिसके चलते क्रूड के भाव चढ़ गए है। फिलहाल ब्रेंट क्रूड 56 डॉलर पर कारोबार कर रहा है जबकि सोने में रिकवरी आई है और ये 3.5 महीने की ऊंचाई पर टिका हुआ है वहीं ट्रंप के संबोधन पर भी कमोडिटी और करेंसी बाजार की नजरें टिकी हुई है।

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कच्चा तेल एमसीएक्स: खरीदें - 3600, स्टॉपलॉस - 3540, लक्ष्य - 3700.

सोना एमसीएक्स: खरीदें - 29550, स्टॉपलॉस - 29400, लक्ष्य - 29800.

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As per second advance estimates for 2016/17, Production of jeera in Gujarat will be 2.21 lt, down almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lt. In the current Rabi season, Gujarat farmers have planted Jeera in 2,78,700 hectares, down by 16,700 hectares compared to last year acreage of 2,95,400 hectares at the same time.

India's economy is expected to have slowed sharply to a near three-year low in the final three months of 2016, as demand wilted following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surprise decision to ban high-value currency notes, a Reuters poll of economists showed.

Modi's announcement on Nov. 8 ordering the removal of 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes took out around 86 percent of the currency in circulation, putting activity on the skids in a predominantly cash-reliant economy. 

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The poll of 30 economists taken over the past week showed India's gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.4 percent annually in the October-December quarter. Several economists were uncertain about the full impact of the currency ban.

In July-September, India's economic growth had accelerated to 7.3 percent from a year ago, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. That title will be lost to China if the Reuters consensus is met, putting the country's growth at its lowest since March 2014, with China's economy having grown 6.8 percent during the same period. 

According to statistics showed in 2016, Peru produced 7.763 million tons of iron ore, increased by 6%, to 442,000 tons compared with the same period of 2015. In December of 2016, the country's iron ore production totaled 583,000 tons, increased by 22.1% compared with the same period of 2015. Production remained normal, but after December of 2012, the production was 634,000 tons since in December of 2016, the country's iron ore production reached to the second highest level in the past few years.

Yieh United Steel Corp. (Yusco), the largest integrated stainless steel mill in Southeast Asia, has announced to hike its export prices by US$60~70/ton for stainless steel products for March. 

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Meanwhile, Yusco decided to remain its domestic prices for 300 and 400 grades stainless steel products unchanged for March. Yusco increased its export prices the main reason is due to higher production costs adjustment accordingly.

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As per the International Grains Council (IGC), the forecast for global total grains production to 2.102 billion tonnes, up from 2.094 billion tonnes in January, and up from 2.006 billion in 2015-16. If realized, it would be the first time output has exceeded 2.1 billion tonnes. Total consumption was raised to 2.069 billion tonnes from 2.062 billion tonnes.

The IGC forecast world wheat production in 2016-17 at 752 million tonnes, unchanged from January and compared with the record outturn of 737 million tonnes in 2015-16. World wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 236 million tonnes, up from 235 million tonnes in January and up 15 million tonnes from 221 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC forecast 2016-17 maize production at 1.049 billion tonnes, up from 1.045 billion tonnes in January and compared with 973 million tonnes in 2015-16. The consumption projection was raised to 1.035 billion tonnes from 1.028 billion tonnes in January.Improved weather in South America led the IGC to raise its forecast for world soybean production, to 336 million tonnes, from 334 million in January. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was raised to 334 million tonnes from 333 million. The IGC said global trade is expected to increase to 139 million tonnes.

Aluminium futures fell over 1 per cent during morning trade in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and speculators remained on the sidelines in the industrial metal amid muted physical demand for aluminium at the domestic spot market.

Aluminium trading range for the day is 123.9-127.3.Aluminium gained as prices recovered on short covering despite of concerns that Chinese supply is rising. Chinas home price growth slowed for the fourth straight month as demand cooled further in the biggest cities, official data showed.Aluminum daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 401 tonnes.

At the MCX, aluminium futures for February 2017 contract is trading at Rs 124.60 per kg, down by 1.15 %, after opening at Rs 125.50, against a previous close of Rs 126.05. It touched the intra-day low of Rs 124.50.

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Crude oil corrected heavily yesterday as elevated US inventories triggered a profit selling spree, pulling prices off their multi month highs. Crude-oil prices on Wednesday finished lower, snapping a three-session string of gains. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange pared 1.4%, to settle at $53.59 a barrel.

 The counter has edged up in Asia, adding nearly one dollar to reclaim $54 levels though the overall undertone now remains choppy ahead of the EIA weekly update later on today. MCX Crude oil futures closed down nearly 2% at $3598 per barrel yesterday. The counter should rise near its previous session high of Rs 3662 levels today. 

Crude oil has been well supported after OPEC said it was sticking to its agreement to cut production and hoped compliance with the deal would be even higher ( than the existing 90%). Meanwhile, global commodity giant BHP Billiton also sounded upbeat on oil prices in its latest earnings release today. Crude oil prices trended higher in the first half of the 2017 financial year, particularly in the second quarter. OPEC reversed course on 30 November 2016 by agreeing to its first production cut since 2008 and the first cooperative deal with non-OPEC producers since 2001. These developments, and improving fundamentals, led to the price recovery.