Indian Stock Trading Tips | Commodity Tips | IEA leaves global Oil demand growth

The International Energy Agency has kept its forecast for global oil demand growth unchanged as lower oil prices may offset impact of weaker economy, it said in a monthly report.


IEA’s global oil demand growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are at 1.3 million bbl a day and 1.4 million barrels per day, respectively.

The agency’s demand growth forecast for countries outside the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has been revised down by 165,000 bpd for 2019.

“Oil demand is slowing in several non-OECD countries, as the impact of higher year-on-year prices is amplified by currency devaluations and slowing economic activity,” the report said.

Demand from the OECD, however, is likely to rise by 355,000 bpd in 2018 before slowing down to 285,000 bpd in 2019.

Global supply in October was up 2.6 million bpd on-year as record output from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US more than offset declines from Iran and Venezuela.

The agency expects output from the countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to expand by 2.4 million bpd and 1.9 million bpd in 2018 and 2019, respectively the OPEC output may fall to 31.3 million bpd in 2019, 1.7 million bpd below current output.

In October, output of the OPEC rose by 200,000 bpd to 32.99 million bpd. Losses of 400,000 bpd from Iran and 600,000 bpd from Venezuela were offset by increases from others.

OECD commercial stocks rose 12.1 million bbl in September to 2.875 bln bbl. For Jan-Jun, based on the agency’s outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production, the implied stock build is currently 2 million bpd.

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