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The nickel futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell in the past week.

The contract made a high of ₹917.8 per kg on last Thursday and has come-off from there. It has tumbled 4.7 percent from this high and is currently trading at ₹875. The near-term view is negative. The contract can extend the downmove to test the 21-day moving average support at ₹862.

A break below ₹862 will drag the contract further lower towards the crucial ₹850-847 support region. Whether the contract manages to bounce from this support zone or not will then decide the next move.

A decisive break below ₹847 will increase the likelihood of the contract tumbling towards ₹830 or ₹825 on the back of profit booking.

On the other hand, if the contract manages to bounce from the ₹850-₹847 support zone, the downside pressure would ease.

A bounce back towards ₹900 and ₹910 is likely in such a scenario. It will also indicate the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the chart. This is a bullish continuation pattern and in this case, it will mean that the uptrend is intact and could resume going forward.

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A volume of 10.34 lakh kg has been cataloged for Sale No: 8 of the auctions of Coonoor Tea Trade Association to be held on Thursday and Friday.

It is some 41,000 kg more than the offer for last week’s auctions.

Of this, 6.86 lakh kg belongs to leaf grades and 3.48 lakh kg, dust grades. As much as 9.45 lakh kg belongs to CTC variety and only 89,000 kg, orthodox variety. The proportion of orthodox teas continues to be low in both leaf and dust grades. In the leaf counter, only 49,000 kg belongs to orthodox while 6.37 lakh kg, CTC. Among the dust, only 40,000 kg belongs to orthodox while 3.08 lakh kg, CTC.

Homedale Estate’s Red Dust, auctioned by Global Tea Brokers, topped not only the Dust tea auctions but the entire auction last week when TRP Tea and Commodities bought it for ₹277 a kg. This was the highest price of any tea, CTC or orthodox, from any factory, corporate or bought-leaf. Homedale Estate’s Super Red Dust tea, auctioned by Global Tea Brokers, followed at ₹268.

In the CTC Leaf Tea auctions, Homedale Estate tea, auctioned by Global Tea Brokers, topped at ₹265 followed by Vigneshwar Estate tea, auctioned by Paramount Tea Marketing at ₹205.

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Traders said gold prices took a hit owing to a weak global trend as the dollar remained firm, while investors awaited the minutes of the US Fed's last policy meeting

Gold tumbled by Rs 250 to Rs 31,450 per ten gram at the bullion market on Thursday in tandem with a weakening global trend amid easing demand from local jewelers.

Silver followed suit and slipped by Rs 140 to Rs 39,300 per kg on reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers.

Traders said gold prices took a hit owing to a weak global trend as the dollar remained firm, while investors awaited the minutes of the US Fed's last policy meeting.

Globally, gold fell 0.21 percent to $1,325.90 an ounce and silver by 0.18 percent to $16.39 an ounce in Singapore on Thursday.

Besides, easing demand from local jewelers and retailers at domestic spot market weighed on gold prices.

In the national capital, gold of 99.9 percent and 99.5 percent purity plunged by Rs 250 each to Rs 31,450 and Rs 31,300 per ten gram, respectively.

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On the other hand, imports of cut and polished diamonds have dipped by 12.91 percent to $1.8 billion during the same period

Imports of rough diamonds have increased by 11.11 percent to USD 15.53 billion during the April-January period of the current fiscal, according to Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).

The imports had aggregated to USD 13.97 billion in the 10-month period of last fiscal, 2016-17. The inbound shipments of gold bars also rose by 18.2 percent to USD 4.37 billion during the April-January period of 2017-18.

However, imports of cut and polished diamonds dipped by 12.91 percent to USD 1.88 billion during the period under review as compared to USD 2.16 billion a year ago.

The GJEPC data further showed that exports of gems and jewelry declined by 4.71 percent to USD 27.5 billion during the period under review due to demand slowdown in major markets, including the US.

The labor-intensive sector contributes about 14 percent to the country's overall exports.

The drop in shipments is mainly due to negative growth in the export of gold medallions and coins.

The industry has asked for support in terms of increasing incentives under the Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) to boost the shipments.

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India still managed to maintain its position as a net exporter of finished steel

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India's export of finished steel shrank by over 30 percent to 0.616 million tonnes (MT) during January 2018, according to the government's Joint Plant Committee (JPC).

The country had exported 0.890 MT of finished steel during the same month a year ago.

Exports should account for 6-7 percent of India's total steel production in the next few years, up from the 1.5 percent at present, Union Steel Minister Chaudhary Birender Singh had earlier said.

The import of finished steel too fell by 44.5 percent to 0.335 MT in January 2018 from 0.604 MT during January 2017.

In spite of a drop in exports number as well as imports, India managed to maintain its position as a net exporter of finished steel.

"India was a net exporter of total finished steel in January 2018 as also during April-January 2017-18," the JPC said.

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TWG looks to build its brand in a nation of tea drinkers

It took ten years for the first TWG Tea boutique to throw open its doors in India. Surprising that for a brand that is built around tea, a drink that is as much of a necessity as it is a political statement in the country.

But TWG Tea that has 70 salons and boutiques in close to 16 countries chose to take its time and has finally launched with two boutiques in New Delhi, one located inside The Oberoi and another at the DLF Emporio mall. Why did it take so long and is India ready for a luxury brand in what is considered to be the common man’s beverage? Taha Bouqdib...

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The rising trend witnessed in the recent weeks in the prices at the auctions of Coonoor Tea Trade Association continued for Sale No: 6 as well when the average price rose to ₹95.42 a kg – the highest since April 21, 2017. It was some ₹2 more over the previous week as well.

Homedale Estate’s Broken Pekoe grade, auctioned by Global Tea Brokers, topped when Santhosh Tea Industries P Ltd bought it for₹290. This was the highest price in the entire auction of any tea, CTC or orthodox, from any factory, corporate or bought-leaf.

Two other grades of Homedale Estate, auctioned by Global Tea Brokers, followed at ₹281 and ₹270.

Three grades of Vigneshwar Estate tea, auctioned by Paramount Tea Marketing, followed at ₹215, ₹202 and ₹200.

In Dust tea auctions, Homedale Estate’s two grades, auctioned by Global Tea Brokers, topped at ₹278 and ₹273.

In the orthodox tea market, Kodanad topped at ₹202. All others got less than ₹200.

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At the trial farm in Tamil Nadu, eight vegetable crops were grown using the precision irrigation system

Scientists from the Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh (UK) have developed a cloud-based micro-irrigation system, which when tested on a farm in south India helped cut water use and doubled crop yield.

The system combines a highly localized weather forecast with local know-how on irrigation needs and soil conditions. Local farmers’ knowledge on irrigation and soil conditions for each of these crops were scheduled on the cloud-based system, an official statement said.

Trials were conducted under the Innovate UK-funded Smart Control of Rural Renewable Energy and Storage (SCORES) project.

“We tested eight crops with our precision irrigation system,” said Eddie Owens, director of Heriot-Watt University’s Energy Academy.

“The results of our initial trials were extremely encouraging. Our irrigation system reduced water and energy use by up to 80 percent and in some of the trials, the crop yield doubled, enabling farmers to grow bigger vegetables and fruits, faster,” Owens added.

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OPEC’s price defense strategy might threaten its market share if carried too far

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US crude oil production is set to increase by more than 1.2 million barrels per day in 2018 compared with 2017, according to the latest short-term forecasts from the US Energy Information Administration.

US crude production will average almost 10.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year compared with 9.3 million bpd in 2017. The forecast has been revised sharply higher from less than 10.3 million bpd at the time of the last prediction in January 2018 and 9.9 million bpd in July 2017.

Fine line

Surging output from shale underscores the growing competitive threat to members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia. Efforts to restrain production under the cooperation framework between OPEC and non-OPEC allies risk back-firing.

The cooperating countries are already conceding market share to the shale producers, in a re-run of the situation before oil prices slumped in 2014. If production restraint succeeds in drawing down global inventories even further and pushes Brent significantly above $70 per barrel, the resulting shale surge and a slowdown in consumption growth will intensify the danger.

Exit plan

OPEC and its allies need to start planning an exit from their production agreement with the goal of capturing at least some incremental market demand in 2018 and 2019 while preventing another slump in prices.

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Oil prices on Thursday were close to their lowest levels this year, with soaring US output undermining OPEC's efforts to tighten markets and prop up prices.

Brent crude futures were at $65.28 per barrel at 0104 GMT, down 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, from the previous close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $61.58 a barrel. That was down 21 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement.

The dips follow bigger falls on Wednesday when crude touched one-month lows and erased most of 2018's early gains.

Some support on Thursday came from the second outage in as many months on the 450,000 barrels per day Forties pipeline network, Britain's biggest, which supplies much of the crude underpinning Brent futures.

But the biggest market driver was US production. What's long been expected is now official: US crude oil output averaged above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since the early 1970s last week, reaching 10.25 million bpd.

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Despite the rise in the arrival of new crop, improved future lifted chana prices with chana (kanta) quoted at ₹3,900, while chana (desi) ruled at ₹3,650 a quintal. Chana dal (average) quoted at ₹4,950-5,100, chana dal (medium) at ₹5,150-5,250, while chana dal (bold) ruled at ₹5,350-5,450 a quintal respectively. The downtrend in Dollar chana also continued amid slack physical demand today being quoted at ₹6,500-7,200 a quintal, depending upon moisture content. In container dollar, chana traded lower on weak export demand with dollar chana (44/46 count) quoted at ₹7,600, while dollar chana (58/60 count) was quoted at ₹6,600 a quintal.

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Spot rubber closed unchanged on Thursday. RSS 4 continued to remain neutral at ₹123 a kg, according to traders and the Rubber Board. The grade was quoted steady at ₹120 by dealers.

February futures concluded at ₹123.56 (123.47), March at ₹125.50 (125.43), April at ₹128 (128.01) and May at ₹129.50 (129.13) on NMCE.

RSS 3 (spot) firmed up to ₹108.24 (107.52) at Bangkok.

February futures for RSS 3 improved to ₹110.61 (110.01) on TOCOM. Spot rubber rates (₹/kg) were: RSS-4: 123 (123); RSS-5: 117.50 (117.50); ISNR 20: 108.50 (108.50) and Latex (60% drc): 85.50 (86). Our Correspondent

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Spot pepper prices continued to show an upward trend in the tight availability of indigenous high bulk density material.

New pepper started trickling in from Kerala's Wayanad district where harvesting has just begun. The sellers were asking for ₹425 a kg but the buyers were at ₹420 a kg.

There were no arrivals from the high ranges. Seven tonnes from the plains mixed with Sri Lankan material were traded on Thursday at ₹410, trade sources told Business Line.

Spot prices moved up further by ₹200 a quintal to close at ₹41,600 (ungarbled) and ₹43,600 (garbled) a quintal.

Indian export prices were at $7,050 a tonne c&f for Europe and $7,300 a tonne c&f for the US.

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The sharp rise comes weeks after MP's price deficit scheme closed in December

Soybean rates in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have risen sharply since January 1 over rumors of output being lower than expected. This could affect a big section of farmers because 70-80 percent of the crop has already been sold, sources said.

The price spike comes weeks after the sale window of the Madhya Pradesh government’s much-published Bhavaantar Bhugtan Yojana closed in December. This has sparked speculation that traders who used the scheme to their benefit are now pushing up prices to clear inventories.

Data sourced from various agencies show that soybean rates in mandis in Madhya Pradesh have risen by 14-25 percent since January 1 and in mandis in Maharashtra by 30-35 percent. Soybean rates in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra had barely moved during the same period last year.

Mandi arrivals have dropped since January 1, but the fall has not been acute enough for such a sharp rise in prices.

Sources said the market was agog with rumors that government might lower its crop estimate significantly. “Stockists who have brought soybean from unregistered farmers during the Bhavaantar Bhugtan Yojana are contributing to this price speculation,” a source said.

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Thermal power producers in India who are dependent on imported coal now face the tough situation of higher cost of production

Global coal prices have been on a steady rise in the last few months, increasing cost pressure for thermal power producers in the country. This is happening as they struggle with lower offtake for the power they generate.

The price of 4,200 kcal/kg grade coal, which is a very popular grade bought by both India and China, has surged 33% to $49.25 per tonne as of Friday, compared with the start of 2017 when it was assessed at $37 per tonne, Platts data shows.

Thermal power producers in India who are dependent on imported coal now face the tough situation of the higher cost of production, while the sale price for power continues to remain weak in India. Adani Power, Essar Power, Tata Power and JSW Energy are some of the companies which run power generation capacities on imported coal.

“Our sourcing cost for coal has increased from $55 per tonne to $ 60 per tonne in the last three to four months time," said an official from Essar Power. To put the rise in perspective, the official stated, ballpark for every one dollar rise in coal prices, there is 20 to 25 paise addition to the cost of power generated. For Essar Power, 50% of its 2400 megawatt capacity runs on imported coal.

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Sources in the sector say the lean season for cow milk has started in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka

There are signs of recovery for the country's dairy farmers, struggling with both surplus stock and an inability to export due to low prices abroad of skimmed milk powder (SMP).

The industry says SMP prices have risen by Rs 10-12 a kg in the past fortnight, both at home and abroad. Things, however, are complicated by growing import of whey powder and lactose, due to lower international prices.

International prices of SMP are Rs 115-120 a kg; in India, around Rs 150 a kg. The domestic price is low by normal standards and dairies find it unviable to convert liquid milk into SMP for sale. For every 100 kg of cow milk, around 8.5 kg of SMP and 3.5 kg of ghee can be produced. SMP processing is relatively expensive as compared to processing of liquid milk and requires prices at a certain level to be viable.

“Prices have started showing some signs of recovery in both domestic and international markets and this is the first sign of revival. If the government now does some buffer stocking or announces an export subsidy to allow some consignment to go out of the country, the crisis is averted,” said R S Sodhi, managing director of the country's largest dairy entity, Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF, producers of the Amul brand).

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Upside in mustard seed and maize prices too might be capped

The country's wheat output could drop by 2.31 percent to 96.1 million tonnes in the 2017-18 crop year due to shifting in the area to other crops but it won’t stop prices from remaining sluggish, research done by private agri-commodities management and services firm National Collateral Management Services Ltd (NCMSL) said on Tuesday.

Not only wheat, the research showed that chana prices are expected to remain below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs 4,400 per quintal for most of the season and upside will be capped at Rs 4,600 per quintal.

Sugar prices will trade in the band of Rs 2,780-3,250 per quintal with a pressure on any upper movement.

The price and crop outlook by NCMSL, India largest private warehousing and weather data provider also showed that though cotton production in 2017-18 might suffer due to pink bollworm attack, the price increase won’t be too sharp due to supply pressures and any upside would be capped at Rs 23,000 candy (1 candy = 356 kilograms) while on the downside it might slide up to Rs 18,900 per candy.

Soybean rates too would consolidate around Rs 3,100-3,400 per quintal levels with a negative bias.

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Oil prices rose on Tuesday, lifted by healthy economic growth as well as the ongoing supply restraint by a group of exporters around OPEC and Russia.

Spot Brent crude futures were at $69.33 at 0148 GMT, up 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close, not far off the January 15 three-year high of $70.37 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.90 a barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement. WTI hit its highest since December 2014 on Jan. 16 at $64.89 a barrel.

Traders said oil markets were generally well supported by healthy economic growth and supply curbs by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, which began in January last year and are set to hold throughout 2018.

The “economic outlook and the seasonally colder weather has led to firmer oil demand growth, facilitating the continuation of a fall in oil inventories towards OPEC's recent five-year average target,” BNP Paribas said in a note. “The outlook for 2018 is roughly balanced for most of the year, but inventories are set to rise in Q4’18,” the French bank said, adding that it has hiked its 2018 oil price forecasts by $10 a barrel and expects WTI to average $60 a barrel and Brent $65.

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Cotton yarn, fabric exports see dismal growth of 0.38% year-on-year in dollar terms in December 2017

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A sharp 11 percent rise in cotton prices during the past two months in India has pushed up raw material costs for mills, making export unviable and uncompetitive. International cotton prices are also up by 17 percent, but 2.7 percent appreciation in the Indian rupee has nullified all the gains to be had from global cotton prices.

While cotton yarn and cotton fabric exports have seen a dismal growth of 0.38 percent year-on-year in dollar terms in December 2017, that for man-made yarn and fabrics grew by 6.77 percent.

As per the central government's quick estimates of exports for some of the major commodities for December 2017, cotton yarn, cotton fabrics, cotton made-ups and handloom products, among others grew by 0.38 percent to stand at $938.57 million, up from $935.05 million in December 2016.

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Amid strong global cues and physical demand, the uptrend in soya oil continued with soya refined in Indore mandis ruling at ₹740-42 for 10 kg, while soya solvent ruled at ₹710-20. Soybean ruled firm at ₹3,250-3,300 a quintal amid declining arrival and weak availability of soybean seeds with crushers. Plant deliveries were at ₹3,050-75 a quintal. Soyameal on the spot ruled at ₹24,000 a quintal amid improved domestic demand.

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