To judge by the government's response to a spike in onion prices this year, you'd say the former. The crop was suffering through an 18-month slump in mid-July when word began to creep out of harvest failures in Karnataka state and the collapse of an agricultural-purchase program in Madhya Pradesh, hitting supply from two of the three biggest producing regions.

Prices went vertical, rising from 400 rupees ($6.12) per 40 kilogram lot on July 19, to 1,200 rupees three weeks later.

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